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Topic: Astrolabes (Read 1302 times) previous topic - next topic

  • Nuyur
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Re: Astrolabes
Reply #15
Thats true pallist...but you dont just need the last one to not drop on the 0.5%...you also need the one before it, AND the one before it AND the one before it.

In chance, those ANDS are multiplied odds.

So you go from 99.5% chance of it not dropping on the first kill (duh), to AND for the 2nd kill
99.5% *99.5% = 99.0025%
AND for the 3rd kill
98.5074875%
AND for the 4th kill
98.0149500625%
So after 4 kills, you still have a 98% chance to NOT have an astrolabe (obvious)

But the chance of not getting one roll after roll after roll does decrease, to a point of near certainty.

The problem is, you can be that unlucky that it never drops...because the statistical outlier of needing 82347509173425807123648723460825 kills to get a drop does exist, however unlikely.

Re: Astrolabes
Reply #16
You'd average 1 of every 200 kills
85% /s

  • Nuyur
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Re: Astrolabes
Reply #17
if you kill infinitely many yes, but you cant.
So, to not get an astro labe at 200 kills is
99.5% ^200 = 36.695782172616738683789723976933%
So, one in 3 players will not get in astrolabe after killing 200. (roughly)
(if the drop is 0.5%, we dont know that. It may be 0.1%, making it a lot lot lot harder).

Re: Astrolabes
Reply #18
Nuyur, thank you for clear explanation.

85% /s

Re: Astrolabes
Reply #19
If it's the first bonecrew or the 919 bonecrew, every individual bonecrew is an independent 0.5% chance.

If you kill 918 bonecrew without ever getting an astrolabe, the 919 is still a 0.5% chance.

It's pure luck.

Please don't play roulette. You'll go broke.

You keep repeating yourself which is the same as repeating 'im an idiot who cant read and cant even get whats been explained 3 times so ill just keep saying the same thing over and over"

  • SomeBK
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Re: Astrolabes
Reply #20
At some point it has to land on 17 though so I'll eventually get more money...

Right?
Fair enough ill be there, Actually can we do it Thurs
(ive been lugging boxes of books all morning from a collection I bought and a little beat)

Re: Astrolabes
Reply #21
At some point it has to land on 17 though so I'll eventually get more money...

Right?
Depends on the payoff.
If the odds of winning are 1 in 100, but the payoff is 50, on average, you will lose twice as much as you gain.

As for Astros from Captains, I am pretty sure it's .5% chance.  On a statistical average you will get 1 per 200
kills, but you could go 1000 kills and not get one.  Just as you could get 2 in 2 kills, though with very low odds.
  • Last Edit: October 30, 2018, 11:44:25 pm by Ktorr

  • Nuyur
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: Astrolabes
Reply #22
I played a game that had gambling.
You could put money on odds or even, and it would double up if you got it right.

Literally a gold making machine, which sort of...hurt the game in the long run.

Later they made the payout 180%, and made the roll go from 1-6 to 0-68, where number 0 meant a loss no matter what.
Also made a minimum and maximum bet.
It changed things...in a sense you could still earn money with it but every once in a while you'd lose a ton.
And yes, people got rich with it...people went broke with it. It really was a gamble at that point.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Re: Astrolabes
Reply #23
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Re: Astrolabes
Reply #24
Ummm... okay....