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Topic: Incoming game shut down. (Read 4176 times) previous topic - next topic

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #135
Yeah, I've just been AFK crafting for the past month.  I give it 10% chance of success now... enough to inspire me to make 3000 useless weapons/bows/staves, in case the 10% materializes.

Im actually pure 50/50 and believe marc when he says they are working on the game and have an avenue for saving it, but that doesnt mean they will and since we lack data 50/50 seems like the only reasonable probability.

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #136
I'm not sure how you can give 50% when they haven't patched in six months, on a 10 year old game that would take real focus to resurrect.  IMO even IF it's true they're still working on it, then they're still failing badly.  So while I respect your opinion, I think 50% is an absolute pipe dream.

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #137
I'm not sure how you can give 50% when they haven't patched in six months, on a 10 year old game that would take real focus to resurrect.  IMO even IF it's true they're still working on it, then they're still failing badly.  So while I respect your opinion, I think 50% is an absolute pipe dream.

I dont see the patching having anything to do with the probability they avert the liquidation, it is a legal matter outside the game itself. Im not 50/50 because there is a lot of data to come to a reasonable probability from, I am 50/50 because of the lack of data to make a reasonable probability from.

We know the company is in a legal bind and could dissolve, but we know after a couple months it still has not and marc has said there is an avenue to save it, there is a 50% chance it will shut down and a 50% chance they have the means of saving it. Without more data there is no way to apply more accurate odds, everything else is just peoples 'feelings' on the matter.
  • Last Edit: November 10, 2018, 09:35:41 pm by Mycke

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #138
While I don't respect your opinion you are free to believe what ever you believe, I do how ever find it quite interesting that you picked an arbitrary number that doesn't lean either way. Hell I'd despise you a bit less if you said it was a 75/25 that they would make it.

I don't get why I would need to even mention this but one way that patching the game as soon as possible could help, even if it is a small barley significant patch, is to restore community faith. They could then keep working on a larger patch. Why this would matter is because community faith is highly tied to the potential to earn money from a subscription (yeah, not active) based game, which could prevent them from liquidation. No community faith is equals to an insignificant amount of money which in turn increases the chance of liquidation.

The same goes with communication, is this not obvious? It has been stated by multiple people. If you can think of a single valid reason to why patching small and frequently would be worse for their potential income then I'll give you a cookie. The marketing part of it is not a valid reason as the game would be just as marketable with small patching, even more so and earlier.

If you want to patch big for marketing reasons, patch the game to a place where people would gladly pay subscriptions (which if you read on the forums is more related to trust than anything). After you've done that, and gotten some influx of cash, you can release a big expansion-ish patch to push another marketing campaign when you can actually afford it in man hours.

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #139
While I don't respect your opinion you are free to believe what ever you believe, I do how ever find it quite interesting that you picked an arbitrary number that doesn't lean either way. Hell I'd despise you a bit less if you said it was a 75/25 that they would make it.

I don't get why I would need to even mention this but one way that patching the game as soon as possible could help, even if it is a small barley significant patch, is to restore community faith. They could then keep working on a larger patch. Why this would matter is because community faith is highly tied to the potential to earn money from a subscription (yeah, not active) based game, which could prevent them from liquidation. No community faith is equals to an insignificant amount of money which in turn increases the chance of liquidation.

The same goes with communication, is this not obvious? It has been stated by multiple people. If you can think of a single valid reason to why patching small and frequently would be worse for their potential income then I'll give you a cookie. The marketing part of it is not a valid reason as the game would be just as marketable with small patching, even more so and earlier.

If you want to patch big for marketing reasons, patch the game to a place where people would gladly pay subscriptions (which if you read on the forums is more related to trust than anything). After you've done that, and gotten some influx of cash, you can release a big expansion-ish patch to push another marketing campaign when you can actually afford it in man hours.

Again very fucking simple, two possible outcomes with insufficient data to favor one over the other is always going to be 50/50, nothing arbitrary about it.

I swear they just dont teach logic and critical thinking anymore and it shows.
  • Last Edit: November 10, 2018, 10:15:10 pm by Mycke

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #140
Lol just because you don't have the data doesn't mean it defaults to 50/50, the universe doesn't work like that.  50/50 is not the default probability of everything.  Unknown is not 50/50, unknown is unknown.  😀

  • SomeBK
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Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #141
Lmfao Mycke. So I take it when sports odds makers throw out 16:1 odds at the start of the football season that a certain team will win the super bowl it's obviously just a rip off because there's a 50/50 chance the whole season every team will win the big game right?
Fair enough ill be there, Actually can we do it Thurs
(ive been lugging boxes of books all morning from a collection I bought and a little beat)

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #142
Lmfao Mycke. So I take it when sports odds makers throw out 16:1 odds at the start of the football season that a certain team will win the super bowl it's obviously just a rip off because there's a 50/50 chance the whole season every team will win the big game right?
Lmao id love it if they used myckes logic and just went "well i dont fucking know because noone has won yet, guess the browns have as much chance of winning as the patriots, 50/50 bois"
ADD ME ON SNAPCHAT: PETIT_CHAT69

You should recomend the game to new players. It's never been in a better state

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #143
Again very fucking simple, two possible outcomes with insufficient data to favor one over the other is always going to be 50/50, nothing arbitrary about it.

I swear they just dont teach logic and critical thinking anymore and it shows.
This has to be the dumbest shit I've read in a few years now, doesn't even make me mad. I mean there is dumb, Hyld and this.

Just because you don't have the data doesn't make it a 50/50. You are probably frustrated or something cause I do not believe that you in a normal state of mind would utter those words. I might not think highly of you, but I do expect more.

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #144
Lol just because you don't have the data doesn't mean it defaults to 50/50, the universe doesn't work like that.  50/50 is not the default probability of everything.  Unknown is not 50/50, unknown is unknown.  😀

Well the universe usually has more than 2 possible outcomes in this case they either save the company or they dont. If your friend is late to an appointment you might try to define it as got in a car accident or didnt, but maybe they were just running late, or got a flat or had an accident in front of them, most things have multiple possible outcomes, this doesnt. This isn't 'win the lottery or not' because we can apply mathematical odds to winning the lottery so that would not be 50/50, there is no mathematical odds for them being able to get financing or renegotiate debt.

Anyway its all moot and you can apply whatever probability you like but I personally feel there is not enough evidence to give either possibility a higher probability and thus can only see it as 50/50.
  • Last Edit: November 10, 2018, 11:26:59 pm by Mycke

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #145
I would say there is a 10% chance of this game being around in 6 months time.
There is enough evidence of lack of performance to make us pessimistic.
Ub3r would have to be developing a jesus patch that generates income and brings people back to truly turn things around.

As I've indicated before, while the game is live I'm happy to have fun with the Horde against whoever is still playing.
I don't see my current time in-game as wasted time, if I left now after spending so much time on progression and didn't make the most of this time, then I would consider the previous time as a waste.
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Chunder McBushpig
Token Horde Australian

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Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #146
I would say there is a 10% chance of this game being around in 6 months time.
There is enough evidence of lack of performance to make us pessimistic.
Ub3r would have to be developing a jesus patch that generates income and brings people back to truly turn things around.

As I've indicated before, while the game is live I'm happy to have fun with the Horde against whoever is still playing.
I don't see my current time in-game as wasted time, if I left now after spending so much time on progression and didn't make the most of this time, then I would consider the previous time as a waste.

Maybe this is where the confusion lies, im not in any way making claims upon the success or failure of the game itself, just if they can survive or not the liquidation process. They could very well survive the process and still shut down 4 months later.

If thats what we are discussing, the long term survival of the game then yes its far less than 50/50.
  • Last Edit: November 11, 2018, 12:38:01 am by Mycke

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #147

I dont see the patching having anything to do with the probability they avert the liquidation, it is a legal matter outside the game itself...

This point is highly unlikely to me.  If there's any credible chance of liquidation, I doubt there's any material (coding) work happening  at this time.

My (admittedly worthless) gut intuition about the game is that all/most of the programmers bailed for other opportunities around July, leaving only Marc running everything, literally solo.  He's probably working, as he hinted, on designs docs on how to improve the new player experience, which is the Achilles' Heel of DND, but probably nothing else. This would be the basis for trying to get  investor cash.

I always saw DND (and ROA for that matter) as a super speculative project that likely wouldn't be financially sustainable, especially as a for profit endeavor, with paid programmers.

The best hope we have (imho) is that there could be some kind of transition to a non-profit community run server, like many of the very popular Ultima Online shards.  Darkfall cannot take much in terms of computing power or bandwidth these days, for a core code base that is over 10 years old.  The real challenge would be the licensing and the politics of creating a long term non-profit entity, especially if we can get a few good  part-time volunteer programmers. (If there are any good Java programmers in the world  :)) )

There's very likely still enough well off hardcore people around who'd pony up generous Patreon cash to pay for the server and the bandwidth, as long as there's a credible chance of success.  The financial costs for server/bandwidth are probably less than $2000 a year, just a wild guess.  In the end, only Marc, with all pride set aside, could probably kickstart some effort of this nature, so that the dream can live on, even if there's no money to be made.

Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #148
Marc isn't exactly wooing the cash out of the hardcore vets' pockets with his chosen communication style and patch frequency.

  • SomeBK
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: Incoming game shut down.
Reply #149
Yeah, Marc's communication skills are very underdeveloped. That must mean he's retarded period
Fair enough ill be there, Actually can we do it Thurs
(ive been lugging boxes of books all morning from a collection I bought and a little beat)